US Economy: Illusion of Relief Amid Worsening Crisis

The employment data in the United States has always been a concern for outsiders.

The reason is simple, as it is one of the more direct indicators of the health of the U.S. economy.

At the end of September and the beginning of October, the United States was hit by two major hurricanes. When the market originally thought that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States would increase as a result, it unexpectedly fell!

Has the employment in the United States really bottomed out and rebounded?

Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor shows that the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week of October 19th was 227,000, lower than the expected 242,000, and the previous value was 241,000.

Looking at this data, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States is declining, indicating that more and more people have job security.

Seeing this, you might think that the employment situation in the United States is very good, and the economy is very resilient.

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Regardless of strikes or natural disasters, we can see that the employment rate in the United States can remain stable, even exceeding expectations.

However, many people will only see this and overlook other data that follows, and we will gradually reveal its true face.

Firstly, due to the special timing of the announcement, the impact of the hurricanes meant that many unemployed individuals were not able to apply for unemployment benefits in a timely manner.Secondly, the manufacturing industry in the United States is facing massive layoffs and strikes. This has also led to many unemployed individuals failing to apply for unemployment benefits in a timely manner.

Let's return to the data aspect.

As is well known, the Department of Labor has a penchant for "fiddling" with the data. What does this mean? It means that all numerical values are subject to revision, either upward or downward, and this time they have chosen to revise them upward.

For the week ending October 12th, the number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits was 1.897 million, with an expected 1.875 million, and the previous value, which was originally 1.867 million, was revised to 1.869 million.

To put it bluntly, the U.S. Department of Labor has once again started playing tricks with the data.

In order to present the data in a more favorable light, they chose to revise it upward during a relatively weak period to make it appear strong. They have also previously revised the data downward during strong economic times to lower expectations.

Reading this, do you still have the initial impression that the U.S. employment situation is resilient?

There is another piece of data that we must not overlook and should take very seriously, and that is the number of people continuously applying for unemployment relief.

The number of people continuously applying for unemployment benefits is 1.897 million, while the previous value (data from the week before) was 1.865 million. This figure has surged to a new high since November 2021.

A soul-searching question: If the employment environment is truly good, why is there a continuous need to apply for unemployment benefits?The number of job postings in the United States has decreased by 27.4% year-on-year, reaching the lowest level since January 2021.

The number of job postings has been declining for 2.5 years, and it has now dropped by 45% compared to its peak in February 2022.

Summarizing the above situation, it sends one signal: the employment environment in the United States is deteriorating at an accelerated pace.

Therefore, we cannot solely rely on the surface data when looking at the United States; if we delve deeper, we find many loopholes.

The low employment environment in the United States has an impact on the country in the form of economic issues.

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