LJ Green Energy's $1B Market Cap at Risk, Down 37% This Year

As Longi Green Energy's (601012.SH) stock price hits a new low, the company is only 9.5 billion yuan away from breaking through a market value of 100 billion yuan, while 10 months ago, the company's total market value was still over 200 billion yuan.

On June 25th, Longi Green Energy's stock closed at 14.44 yuan, down 3.93%, with a total market value of 109.4 billion yuan, a cumulative decline of 37% for the year, and the 100 billion market value is within reach. So far this month, Longi Green Energy has fallen by 22.32%, marking the lowest price since May 2020, and after breaking through several consecutive positive lines, the stock's ability to hold at 10 yuan has been questioned.

Post-market data shows that as of the close on June 25th, Longi Green Energy's main capital outflow was 400 million yuan, setting a new high since May 23, 2024, with a continuous outflow for 7 days, accumulating to 1.264 billion yuan. With an additional 8.5% decline, Longi Green Energy will lose its 100 billion market value. Prior to this, the company's market value dropped from 300 billion to 200 billion in just 90 days.

Wind data indicates that on August 22, 2023, Longi Green Energy's total market value broke through 200 billion yuan, closing at 195.903 billion yuan. Since that trading day, the stock has accumulated a decline of 46.54% over 202 days. On April 12, 2023, Longi Green Energy's total market value closed at 300.3 billion yuan, and by August 22nd of the same year, a total of 90 days, 100 billion in market value had evaporated, with a cumulative decline of 35%. Extending the timeline, it took about 139 days for Longi Green Energy's total market value to drop from 400 billion to 300 billion.

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Investors keen on technical analysis often say, "The more at the bottom, the more dangerous." On February 5th this year, Longi Green Energy fell to 17.6 yuan per share, which many investors considered a solid bottom. However, after a horizontal period of about 76 days, on June 6th, Longi Green Energy closed down nearly 4%, hitting a new low and also breaking through the psychological defenses of many investors.

As the stock price continues to decline, Longi Green Energy is trying to stabilize the stock price through share buybacks. On the evening of June 24th, Longi Green Energy announced that from June 1st to 24th, the company had accumulated 2.889 million shares repurchased, with a total repurchase amount of 45.7198 million yuan. The company launched a repurchase plan in March of this year, and so far, the total repurchase amount is 96.656 billion yuan, which is still a drop in the bucket compared to the lost market value.

Wind data shows that as of the close on June 25th, the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect held 363 million shares of Longi Green Energy, which was 384 million shares at the beginning of this month, with a cumulative sale of about 20 million shares in 16 trading days.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are about to enter the mid-year report disclosure window period, and the pessimistic expectations for Longi Green Energy's mid-year report are considered one of the reasons for the continuous decline in stock prices. In the first quarter of this year, Longi Green Energy's net profit loss scale was the largest among the four major component manufacturers, with the company's single-quarter operating income down 37.6% year-on-year, reaching 17.673 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company continued to lose 2.35 billion yuan, down 164.61% year-on-year and 149.42% quarter-on-quarter. Combined with the continuous decline in the photovoltaic industry chain in the second quarter, Longi Green Energy's loss amount in the second quarter may further expand.

The photovoltaic industry chain prices are still falling, with silicon material prices approaching the bottom, but it is impossible to determine how much the bottom price is. The downstream components have already fallen below 0.8 yuan/W, with no lowest, only lower. Several industry analysts told First Financial Daily reporters that in the process of continuous capacity clearance, the supply and demand pattern and price trend of the photovoltaic main industry chain are the most difficult to grasp. Once the price rebounds slightly, and the operation rate rises, it will force the product prices to fall again.

It is worth mentioning that since May, the majority of sell-side ratings for Longi Green Energy have been "Buy" or "Accumulate", with Huaxing Securities and Huatai Financial Holdings giving target prices of 22.83 yuan and 19.71 yuan, respectively.The actual situation is that if one had purchased shares of Longi Green Energy on the first trading day of May and held them until now, the unrealized loss ratio would reach 20.66%.

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